11/24/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Even though Dale Earnhardt, Jr. made the field for the 2008 "Chase for the Sprint Cup" championship, his first year with Hendrick Motorsports did not live up to expectations.
After spending his first eight full years of NASCAR Cup competition at Dale Earnhardt Inc., Earnhardt, Jr. left the team his father started in 1996 to join the mighty organization of Hendrick as driver of the No.88 Chevrolet at the start of this season.
With a new team, car number and sponsors, the "Junior Nation" was revitalized.
Earnhardt, Jr.'s new ride also sparked a lot of hype in the pre-season.
In January, three-time Cup champion and Fox Sports analyst Darrell Waltrip predicted Earnhardt, Jr. would win six races, including the Daytona 500. Earnhardt, Jr.'s crew chief, Tony Eury, Jr., said he would be disappointed if his team didn't win at least four races this year.
Earnhardt, Jr. began the year by winning the Budweiser Shootout (pre-season, non-points race) at Daytona International Speedway and then a victory in the first Gatorade Duel at Daytona, giving him the third starting spot in the Daytona 500. He finished ninth in that race.
In June, Earnhardt, Jr. snapped a 71-race winless streak at Michigan, but it turned out to be his only points-paying victory of the year.
Two months later, he started the Chase in the fourth seed after recording 13 top-10 finishes during the 26-race "regular season."
While a consistent number of solid finishes put Earnhardt, Jr. into this year's Chase, a string of bad luck in the final 10 races led to a 12th-place finish in points.
"I'm disappointed," team owner Rick Hendrick said last week at a media luncheon at Lowe's Motor Speedway. "I felt we were so good early on, and we just had tremendous little gremlins bite us from tire problems to things you just can't control."
"I think when we look back on the year and we look back at what he's accomplished, how he's fit into our organization and how happy he and Tony (Eury Jr.) are, we're going to make it better for next year."
Earnhardt, Jr., voted NASCAR's "Most Popular Driver" the past five years, will not attend next week's awards banquet in New York City as only the top-10 finishers in the Chase are honored.
"I was super excited about the way the season was going to start," Earnhardt, Jr. said. "I couldn't wait to get to work earlier this year. It was a long year, and we worked really hard. It went good at sometimes, and it went poorly other times. For the most part, I was real proud of just getting the season in the bank and getting done and looking forward to next year. I am really happy to be with Rick (Hendrick) and working with the guys I am working with."
Earnhardt, Jr. enjoyed his best Cup season with DEI in 2004 when he won six races, including the Daytona 500, and finished fifth in points.
While Earnhardt, Jr.'s teammate, Jimmie Johnson, aims for a record fourth- straight series championship, Mark Martin joins the Hendrick stables, replacing Casey Mears in the No.5 car.
With the addition of Martin, Hendrick has created a mega team with any one of his four drivers a strong possibility to win next year's title. But Hendrick thinks Martin's presence will help improve his organization. How that will effect Earnhardt, Jr. remains to be seen.
Though expectations might have been in his first year with Hendrick, Earnhardt, Jr. hopes next year he can return to his winning ways and finally capture his first Cup championship, joining his legendary father who won a record-tying seven titles.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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In terms of sports wagering, the NFL is "the most popular game in town." The explanation behind that is easy.
It is called the "pointspread."
Many years ago, NFL games, as well as the more popular college games, used straight odds as a vehicle for betting. For example, if the Bears were playing the Giants, and it shaped up as a competitive contest, the Bears might be, say, a 7/5 favorite. If they were playing an also-ran, it might be 10/1. Well, there is a point where a line becomes prohibitive, as far as betting the favorite. And who would waste money betting an underdog that has virtually no chance? Such a setup did not contribute to promoting betting action.
But in modern sports betting, a "pointspread" is used.
A NFL pointspreads are exactly that, a pre-established point difference between the two sides that will, for all intents and purposes, create a handicap that evens things out, and in doing so, produces comparable wagering activity on both sides of that proposition. So in lieu of a odds figure in which to bet the team to win outright, the Bears might be a three-point favorite over the New York Giants, and a 17-point favorite over the also-ran. Now that the team that is the underdog can "get" points, there can be equal action on both sides.
In sportsbooks, this is usually done with efficiency by charging the losing bettors 10% extra - in effect, bettors are laying 11/10 on those games. So they are actually betting $110 to win $100. If they lose, they pay the "vig." If they win, they simply collect.
The establishment of the pointspread as the corner stone around which team sports like football can be wagered upon was truly what brought gridiron betting into the stratosphere.
Don't believe it? Just take a look at what happens around the Super Bowl.
Stay with us here as we take you through the best in NFL action on a consistent basis, with advice columns as well as handicapping selections. If you're looking for college football betting, that's in our NCAA section, which you can reach by clicking here. And if you're looking for a different kind of football, such as the Canadian Football League, which we'll deal with occasionally, or the Arena Football League, which we really like, you can find it in our Miscellaneous section by clicking
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting odds .
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